One month into Yemen government offensive, war of attrition takes hold

When Yemen's internationally recognised government announced on October 5 that it was launching a major offensive to seize territory held by Houthi fighters, including the capital, Mohammed Ahmed braced for the worst. A month later, the 40-year-old Sanaa resident says his anxiety has eased. The city, under Houthi control since September 2014, remains largely calm apart from recurring air strikes, even as the Saudi Arabia-led coalition backing the government presses on with Operation Dawn of Yemen.

While the initial momentum surrounding the offensive has faded in the capital, fighting has not ceased elsewhere. The Houthis, an armed group also known as Ansar Allah, have scored territorial gains in the southern provinces of Taiz and Lahij, and experts describe the campaign as a new phase in a war of attrition that shows no signs of easing.

Turki al-Goblan, head of the Saudi Daimumah Center for Studies, told Al Jazeera the offensive has "dealt a blow to the three pillars" of the Houthis' survival strategy: the fuel and supply system that moves combat vehicles, ammunition and reinforcements; the maritime areas around the Bab al-Mandeb strait and the western coast that serve as alternative external supply routes; and the tribes surrounding Sanaa, some of which have begun declaring mobilisation in support of the government. Bab al-Mandeb, which connects the Red Sea and the Arabian Sea, is a major waterway for Saudi oil exports and for Asian economies shipping commodities to Europe.

"When these three pillars are targeted simultaneously, the question shifts from the scale of losses to the ability to replenish them," al-Goblan said, arguing that attrition has outpaced the Houthis' ability to recover. "Attrition ceases to be the opposite of a decisive victory and becomes the means of achieving it as repeated losses translate into an accumulating inability to sustain the fight."

Abdulsalam Mohammed, chairman of the Yemeni Abaad Studies and Research Center, said the offensive forced the Houthis to move their forces and military capabilities, exposing them to deadly attacks. "Many of the Houthi field commanders and hundreds of fighters have been killed in air strikes, especially in Taiz and Yemen's western coast," he said, adding that the group's territorial gains could be short-lived if government airpower and ground fighters sustain coordinated attacks.

The government said last month that its forces killed or wounded 1,540 Houthis in 24 hours, and late last week it put the figure at 16,100 Houthi operatives and commanders killed or wounded since October 5. The Houthis have not confirmed a death toll and have been firing missiles and drones daily into Saudi Arabia, hitting multiple airports and disrupting air traffic over the kingdom. Houthi military spokesperson Yahya Saree said coalition attacks in Yemen, including air strikes, have reached 3,939 since the latest escalation began.

Yazeed al-Jeddawy, a research manager at the Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies, told Al Jazeera the conflict increasingly appears headed towards a prolonged war of attrition because the offensive has not shifted the balance of power over the past 30 days. "The conflict is no longer driven solely by the dynamics inside Yemen; it is intertwined with the wider regional confrontation and the war involving Iran," he said, noting that Tehran views the Houthis as strategic leverage while Riyadh seeks to curb the group's military capabilities and keep it from threatening vital maritime routes, particularly Bab al-Mandeb.

On Monday, Yemen's Presidential Leadership Council reaffirmed its commitment to the operation and its objectives: ending the Houthi "coup", restoring state institutions and extending state authority over the entire territory. Government forces said they had reclaimed control of the Dhubab district in Taiz governorate and key positions near Bab al-Mandeb, and on Sunday said they recaptured military positions and strategic heights east of al-Hazm, capital of the northern governorate of al-Jawf.

Colonel Wadah al-Dubaish, spokesperson for the government-aligned Joint Forces on Yemen's West Coast, acknowledged the Houthis have lately expanded in Taiz but said the price is extremely high. "The group's expansion has been a big adventure. What the Houthis have lost over the past month is more than their losses over the past years combined," he said, arguing that the group capitalised on ceasefires over the past decade to prepare and mobilise. "The lesson is clear: The group threatens all factions in Yemen, and efforts should be united to confront this threat."

Neither government-held territory nor Saudi Arabia has been safe from Houthi missiles since the operation began, and one recent attack killed at least 70 government security recruits in Shabwah. Al-Jeddawy said the strikes show the Houthis retain a functioning, resilient missile capability, but argued the more important question is the external support they continue to receive, whether intelligence, targeting assistance, components, technical expertise or weapons replenishment. Al-Goblan read the continued missile and drone fire differently, saying it may be an attempt to compensate for declining ground manoeuvrability and "create a political impact and an illusion of maintaining the initiative."