Coalition Talks: Arab Neighbors Expect Continuity in Israel Policy

Lebanese and Syrian officials are preparing for continuity rather than change as Israeli politicians scramble to form a government after an election with no clear winner. Neighboring states expect their security arrangements and diplomatic stances to remain largely intact, regardless of which party secures a majority in the Knesset.

Egyptian politician Mostafa Bakry characterized the top contenders as similar, stating that Benjamin Netanyahu and his rival Gadi Eisenkot are two sides of the same coin. This view persists even after exit polls suggested Eisenkot might win a contest that is now increasingly disputed. The outcome remains uncertain as coalition negotiations proceed.

Beth Oppenheim of the European Council on Foreign Relations argues that an Eisenkot-led government would likely be politically fragile. She notes that major policy differences between the camps are domestic, including halting judicial reforms, investigating the events of October 7, and updating conscription laws. On foreign policy, she asserts that nearly all Jewish Israeli parties have adopted Netanyahu’s security doctrine, which involves operating far beyond Israel’s borders and maintaining buffer zones in neighboring territories.

In Syria, the think tank Etana recorded 1,996 Israeli ground operations in the southwest between January and September this year. Ksenia Svetlova of Chatham House said a withdrawal before the vote would have been viewed as a defeat. However, she noted that a security agreement is more probable under an anti-Netanyahu bloc, though negotiations mediated by the United States have stalled after Israel refused to retreat to the lines set by the 1974 disengagement agreement.

In Lebanon, commentators believe Beirut would prefer an Eisenkot-led bloc as the two countries negotiate the Israeli withdrawal from the south and the disarmament of Hezbollah. Eisenkot is widely considered the originator of the Dahiyeh Doctrine, yet Lebanese officials expect him to be easier to deal with. A Lebanese official told L'Orient Today that when Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid replaced Netanyahu between 2021 and 2022, Lebanon concluded a maritime agreement.

Saudi Arabia has hardened its conditions for normalization since the 2023 Hamas attack. Riyadh maintains there is no path to peace without progress on Palestinian statehood. Last week, Saudi Arabia co-signed a communique with Pakistan, Turkey, and Egypt describing Israel as the fundamental source of instability in the region and beyond. Analysts note that a less hardline Israeli government would make it easier for regional powers to acknowledge existing quiet cooperation.

Israel’s Arab-led parties are thought to have increased their seats to around 19, potentially giving them leverage in coalition talks. Analysts suggest a new government might tone down religious messaging and show more flexibility on conditions for disarming Hamas. Mairav Zonszein of the International Crisis Group said that at best, a new government could slow the acceleration of Israeli aggression seen over the past four years.