Police forces in England should be cut to as few as nine, government-ordered review concludes

The number of police forces in England should be reduced from 39 to as few as nine super forces, an official review commissioned by the government has concluded.

The review, led by former Metropolitan police commissioner Lord Hogan-Howe, has not yet been published. Multiple sources say it considers creating nine regional forces, plus a single force for Wales, sitting above more than 150 local policing units that would handle most neighbourhood crime-fighting.

Hogan-Howe's report was completed in September and sent to the home secretary, Shabana Mahmood. Government sources will only say it will be published before Christmas, with a white paper expected in the new year. The report is understood to give a range for the new policing landscape of between nine and 18 larger forces.

Abolishing most of the 43 forces in England and Wales is seen as essential by the review and some police chiefs, including the current Met commissioner, Mark Rowley. They fear the government may delay what would be the most radical change to policing in seven decades. The delay is understood to be linked to Andy Burnham's devolution agenda and his desire to "rewire" the British state and reform local government, including adding more mayors. Some new forces would be accountable to mayors, while others would have mayors covering only part of their area, or none at all.

One police source said: "There are some concerns Andy Burnham may want to align the new police structures with mayors, which could mean 20 or more forces. That is not a radical enough change."

Rowley will speak at an event in Manchester on Friday alongside other chiefs, including Greater Manchester's chief constable, Sir Stephen Watson, to press for fewer forces. The event is titled "The cost of standing still is that criminals will win", but some chief constables have told the Guardian they are annoyed by the Met-organised event and are sceptical of cutting down to nine forces.

Under the plans, the bigger forces would handle major crimes such as murders and serious sexual violence and public order, as well as expensive back office functions like human resources, currently run separately by each of the 43 forces. Above them would sit a new nationwide National Police Service, intended as the home of counter-terrorism policing and serious and organised crime, with an advert for its commissioner expected early in the new year. None of the new forces are likely to be bigger than the Met, which serves 9 million people in London. Hogan-Howe first publicly backed a reduction to nine forces 12 years ago.

The changes could create a vast south-east England force stretching from the London borders to the southern coast, and a north-west force running from the Mersey to the Pennines, covering Greater Manchester, Merseyside and Lancashire and absorbing smaller forces such as Cheshire and Cumbria. Supporters argue the current 43-force model, overseen by 43 police and crime commissioners the government plans to abolish, is too slow and delivers a postcode lottery for crime victims.

Opposition remains strong among some leaders. One chief constable told the Guardian: "Everyone knows 43 forces have to go. But the return on investment could take five or six years." Another said: "If I was the chief constable of the super force, it would be such a huge area, I wouldn't know anybody. I worry about it being too big." Matthew Scott, the Conservative police and crime commissioner for Kent, said: "They will spend a great deal of time tearing up the fabric of policing for a suboptimal outcome." Another police leader asked: "Where is the evidence bigger forces are better?", noting that the largest forces, including the Met, Greater Manchester and West Midlands, had in recent years been put into special measures and seen their chiefs ousted. The white paper will allow the mass abolition and creation of forces to be enforced, though some leaders favour voluntary mergers.

Scotland and Northern Ireland are each already covered by a single force. The Hogan-Howe review studied the creation of national forces in Scotland and the Netherlands, and ministers believe it has avoided past errors by deciding who would deliver local and neighbourhood policing, seen as the bedrock of British law enforcement, before setting up national bodies.