2026 Midterms: Young and Hispanic Voters Return to Democrats

The 2026 midterms saw a marked reversal in voting patterns for several key demographic groups that had moved toward Republicans in 2024. The AP Voter Poll, conducted by SSRS for the Associated Press and other major networks, surveyed more than 100,000 registered voters across all 50 states. The data indicates that Democratic candidates gained substantial ground among young people, Hispanic voters, Black men, moderates, and households with incomes under $50,000. This shift occurred despite a national environment where most voters reported facing at least moderate hardship from inflation.

Voters under the age of 30 displayed the most dramatic change in allegiance. In 2024, this group was roughly evenly split between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. By the 2026 midterms, approximately 70% of voters under 30 supported the Democratic candidate in their local U.S. House race, compared to about 30% for Republicans. Only about 10% of the total 2026 electorate falls into this age bracket, which limits the group's overall impact on the final tally. However, the sentiment within the group was intense, with 50% describing themselves as angry about the direction of the country. Additionally, 60% of these young voters stated that opposing Trump was a primary reason for their ballot choice.

Hispanic voters also reversed their 2024 trend, where they had shifted toward Trump. In 2026, roughly 60% of Hispanic voters nationally backed the Democratic candidate in House races, down from the nearly 40% who voted for Trump two years prior. This swing was decisive in the Texas Senate race, where Democrat James Talarico defeated Republican Ken Paxton. Talarico secured the support of about 60% of Hispanic voters in that state, while Paxton received support from only 30%. In Florida, Republican Ashley Moody won reelection with less than 50% support from Hispanic voters, a decline from Trump's earlier success with that group.

Black male voters returned to the Democratic column at a high rate. About 90% of Black voters supported the Democratic House candidate in 2026, up from the 80% who backed Harris in 2024. The shift among Black men was particularly notable, with only 10% supporting the Republican House candidate, compared to the 25% who voted for Trump in 2024. This demographic was a key factor in the Georgia gubernatorial race, where Keisha Lance Bottoms became the first Black woman elected governor. She received support from roughly 90% of Black men in the state. In contrast, Byron Donalds, elected as Florida's first Black governor, drew support from only 25% of Black men and 10% of Black women.

Moderate voters leaned toward Democrats, particularly in competitive Senate races. About 66% of moderates supported the Democratic House candidate, an increase from the 60% who backed Harris in 2024. A majority of these voters, specifically 80%, said Congress was not doing enough to check the presidency. In Kansas, Democrat Adam Hamilton won 70% of moderate voters, compared to the 50% Harris received. In Iowa, Democrat Josh Turek captured two-thirds of moderates, and in North Carolina, Roy Cooper won 75% of that group.

Households with 2025 incomes below $50,000 also moved toward the Democratic Party. More than half of these voters chose the Democratic candidate in House races, whereas the group was evenly split in 2024. This demographic, which comprises about 30% of U.S. voters, cited cost of living as a critical factor. About 60% of voters in this income bracket said the cost of living was crucial to their decision, compared to 50% of voters earning $50,000 or more.

The survey was fielded from October 19 to November 3 in Alaska and from October 22 to November 3 in the other states. The margin of sampling error for the full sample is plus or minus 0.6 percentage points.