No Majority, Three Paths Ahead

Voters across Israel went to the polls on Tuesday in the highest turnout recorded since 1999, with 77.7% of eligible citizens casting ballots. Despite this heavy participation, early results indicate no political camp can form a standalone government. The next prime minister remains undecided as counting continues, leaving the country in a state of political uncertainty.

Current tallies suggest Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party may secure up to 28 seats. His right-wing and ultra-Orthodox alliance is projected to fall short of the 61 seats needed for a majority. Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party appears set to take second place with approximately 22 seats. The broader "change" bloc surrounding Eisenkot is estimated at roughly 47 seats, also failing to meet the threshold for governance.

Arab parties are on track for at least 17 seats combined. Both major blocs stated during the campaign that they would exclude Arab factions from coalition talks. However, this number makes Arab parties a decisive factor in any attempt to displace Netanyahu from power. President Isaac Herzog will begin formal consultations to select a candidate for prime minister next week.

Analysts have identified three primary scenarios for breaking the deadlock. The first involves a government formed by the change bloc and Arab parties. All change bloc parties except the Democrats, led by Yair Golan, promised not to join with Arab factions. Mansour Abbas, leader of the Islamist Ra'am party, has offered cooperation again. Yohanan Plesner, president of the Israel Democracy Institute, told the Jewish Telegraphic Agency that this option works mathematically but breaks campaign pledges. He noted the public is "deeply unprepared" for such an arrangement, especially since tolerance for Islamist partners declined after the October 7, 2023 attacks.

A variation of this path would see a minority government consisting of Yashar, B'Yachad, Yisrael Beiteinu, and the Democrats. This coalition could reach 65 seats with outside support from Arab factions on key votes. Avigdor Lieberman has rejected the idea, though Professor Jonathan Rynhold of Bar-Ilan University suggested he might agree if he held the prime ministership. Arab parties may demand concessions that Eisenkot finds difficult to accept.

The second scenario is a unity government. Plesner believes serious negotiations for this type of arrangement are likely. Netanyahu would probably retain his full bloc, including Shas and United Torah Judaism, while bringing in one change bloc party. Change bloc members would likely demand a true unity government, requiring Netanyahu to drop a far-right or ultra-Orthodox party resisting a draft bill. Plesner said the public might accept a centrist-leaning result, though many change bloc voters who voted to replace Netanyahu may feel betrayed.

The third possibility is another election. Eisenkot called a repeat vote a mistake given the high turnout. However, Plesner noted that a new round could benefit Netanyahu, who would remain interim prime minister. This mirrors the 2019 cycle, where multiple elections ended with Netanyahu’s bloc ousted in March 2021 before his return in November 2022. Gideon Rahat, a political scientist at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, said entrenched camps now make new elections plausible. Plesner suggested it may "take weeks and perhaps months" to settle who becomes prime minister.