Election Night: How the AP Decides Who Wins

The Associated Press will determine the winners of 435 House seats, 35 Senate seats, and 36 governor races this November. It will make these calls before 100% of the ballots are counted. The media partner for this work is NPR, which has relied on the AP for this task for many years. The AP has been calling races since 1848. That is nearly 180 years of experience in determining winners before the final count is finished.

The process is not a guess. It is a mathematical calculation. AP race callers work with analysts who track votes by county. They look at the type of ballot being cast. They distinguish between in-person votes and advance mail ballots. They stay in constant contact with the vote count team. They track how many ballots are left to count. They analyze where those outstanding ballots are coming from. They look at the political makeup of those specific communities. They use this data to see if one candidate has a path to victory that the others cannot close.

The AP does not make predictions. It does not name likely winners. It does not use speculation. The organization waits for certainty. A race is called when the trailing candidates no longer have a path to win. This can happen when a large percentage of the vote is still outstanding. The math shows that the remaining votes cannot change the outcome. The AP calls the race as soon as a clear winner can be determined. This is the guiding principle of their process.

NPR will not call a race based on a candidate declaring victory. It will not call a race based on a concession speech. The AP follows the same rule. If the AP cannot definitively say a candidate has won, it does not engage in speculation. The AP stood behind this assessment in 2000. It did not call the Florida race between George W. Bush and Al Gore. The margin was too close to say who won with certainty. The AP waited until it was fully confident that the race was won.

The AP backs up its calls with transparent reporting. It provides explanatory journalism on how it reached its decision. This is a hallmark of its election coverage. NPR will use AP data to populate its election results pages. It will alert broadcast and digital audiences on air. It will ensure hundreds of member stations have access to the information. Viewers can track results in real time.

Counting voters can take a while. The process does not end on election night. The AP will continue to tabulate race calls. It will determine the balance of power in the Senate and the House of Representatives. The AP will wait for surety even if it means waiting a bit longer. This patience is why its race calls are trusted by hundreds of news organizations. The AP will not project races. It will wait until it has certainty.